Yuav ua li cas yog cov demographics thiab nws paub

Demography, nyob rau hauv Greek, lus txhais tau tias "cov lus piav qhia ntawm cov neeg." Yuav ua li cas yog lub demographics raws li ib tug tag nrho? Qhov no - qhov kev kawm ntawm txoj kev, hom tu tub tu kiv ntawm qhov sib txawv haiv neeg thiab cov yam tseem ceeb uas (cas) feem xyuam rau txoj kev no.

Tus neeg sau ntawm lub "demography" ntawm lub sij hawm yog tus Fabkis tus paub txog A. Giyyar nyob rau hauv 1855, thiab nyob rau hauv Russia cov tswvyim no pib siv cov 70-ies ntawm lub 18th caug xyoo. Chiv, lub tswvyim ntawm "pejxeem statistics" thiab "demographics" raug xam tias yog synonymous, tab sis thaum lub sij hawm qhov teeb meem no tau hloov. Tam sim no, demography yog ib qho kev ywj science uas kawm cov yam tseem ceeb uas cuam tshuam rau lub neej no, fertility, qhov xaus thiab txiav ntawm kev sib yuav. Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, txoj kev tshawb no ntsuam thiab kwv yees lwm thiab demographic dab siv tshwj xeeb cov hom kev kawm. Yuav kom to taub li cas cov demographics, nws yog tsim nyog los kawm txog cov qauv no science. Yog li ntawd, nyob rau hauv tus cwj pwm ntawm demographic kev tshawb xav yog ib tug piav qhia ntawm ib qho tseem ceeb dab, formulation ntawm hypotheses, cov ntaub ntawv synthesis thiab feem tiam sis.

Thawj cov ntaub ntawv sau yog nqa tawm thaum lub sij hawm kev suav pej xeem, uas yog ua tu ncua. Lwm qhov chaw ntawm cov ntaub ntawv yog tsoom fwv teb chaws statistics. Cov ntaub ntawv ua cov txheej txheem borrowed los ntawm sociometry thiab txheeb cais hais tias, nyob rau hauv Feem ntau, ntawm cov hoob kawm. Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, txoj kev tshawb no qhia txog cov pej xeem dab. Analytical kev tshawb fawb lub demography kev sib txuas lus sib txawv demographic phenomena thiab dab noj qhov chaw. Yog li, demographers yuav piav ib tug ntse los yog gradual poob nyob rau hauv cov pej xeem thiab ib qho kev nce nyob rau hauv yug me nyuam raug rau ntau yam nyiaj txiag, kev sib raug zoo, ib puag ncig thiab lwm yam. Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, muaj ib tug keeb kwm, social, ua tub rog demographics. Demography teeb meem nyob rau hauv Russia kawm txij li thaum nruab nrab-18th caug xyoo. Yuav ua li cas yog cov demographics nyob rau hauv tsarist Russia? Nws yeej yog ib tug kawm txog cov pejxeem statistics. Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo pua 20th, ib qho tseem ceeb ua hauj lwm yog tej hauj lwm ntawm zaum AA Chuprov rau tej yam ua tsov ua rog nyob rau hauv cov txheej txheem ntawm kev sib yuav thiab kev sib nrauj thiab fertility, thiab Nowosielski, uas pored tshaj lub neej no.

Census nqa tawm tom qab lub kaum hli ntuj kiv puag ncig. Cov ntaub ntawv no tsim lub hauv paus rau ntau yam kev tshawb fawb (tsis tsuas demographic). Txawm li cas los, nyob rau hauv lub 30s, tag nrho cov kev tshawb fawb ntawm no zoo tau raug txiav. Demography revived nyob rau hauv lub mus txog 1960. Los ntawm lub sij hawm uas, zaum tau tuaj kom paub hais tias qhov no science yog tsis yog tas rau cov pejxeem statistics. Soj ntsuam tau pib kawm tus ntawm cov yam tseem ceeb ua thiab zuj zus lawm fertility, kev sib yuav, tsev neeg txoj kev loj hlob. Txij li thaum lub 70s ntawm lub xeem caug xyoo tsim lub tswvyim ntawm tus pej xeem kiv puag ncig, tus neeg sau ntawm uas yog tus AG Wisniewski. Lavxias teb sab demographics tau ua ib feem kagorny txoj kev thiab modeling txoj kev, domestic science maj integrate mus rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no. Los ntawm kawg ntawm 20th thiab pib ntawm lub xyoo pua 21st, soj ntsuam ntawm yog them rau kev mloog kom txoj kev tshawb no ntawm lub neej no, fertility thiab sib yuav cai, raws li tau zoo raws li cov kev loj hlob ntawm modeling thiab forecasting. Tag nrho cov no ua ke ua rau nws ua tau rau teb cov lus nug txog dab tsi yog qhov demographics.