Yog nws muaj tseeb hais tias daim ntawv phau ntawv disappearing?

Yog hais tias cov ntawv luam lo lus tshaj plaws ntawm yav dhau los, txawm nws yuav ua rau peb xaav thiab seb tus xav li cas cov txheej txheem kev hloov? Qhov tseeb hais tias e-phau ntawv yog ua nce nrov twb, tsis muaj ib tug tsis ntseeg, tab sis dab tsi yuav coj tau peb cov kev hloov no txhais tau tias kom xa ntaub ntawv? Raws li cov muaj koob meej ntawm hluav taws xob cuam tshuam rau txoj kev loj hlob ntawm cov ntawv luam phau ntawv nws yog tseem tsis tau paub thiab nws yog ib qhov nyuaj twv seb.

Yog tus paub cov nplooj ntawv ntawm daim ntawv sawv ntsug nyob rau hauv ib tug kab nrog av nplaum ntsiav tshuaj, parchment ntawv, phau tau txhais thiab txawm ntaus los xij? Nws nkawd hais tias nws yog inevitable, tab sis, yog hais tias yog li ntawd, seb puas yuav hloov txoj kev rau cov phau ntawv ua kev txhawj xeeb?

Tam sim no statistics

Yuav kom teb tau cov lus nug no nws yog nyuaj heev, nyob rau hauv ib tes vim hais tias e-phau ntawv yog lug siv ntev los no, thiab nws tseem tsis tau mus sib sau ua ke txaus tseeb cov ntaub ntawv hais txog lawv tej yam rau cov lus sau thiab txawm ntau li ntawd nyob rau hauv tus tib neeg lub thought dab. Nyob rau lwm cov tes, statistics qhia tias kis ntawm e-phau ntawv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv kev sib piv nrog rau cov sau tsis tau ua raws li ib tug tsau tooj, nws yog loj hlob, nws ntog.

Nyob rau hauv 2013, lub lag luam rau cov phau ntawv sawv sharply mus rau 20% ntawm tag nrho cov pab muag phau ntawv, thiab txawm lub fact tias cov ntawv luam ntaub ntawv tseem yog tus thawj coj, cov nuj nqis xav ntshai cov neeg sawv cev ntawm loj publishing tsev. Txawm li cas los, twb nyob rau hauv 2015, tus kab hluav taws xob ntaub ntawv tau ceased loj hlob thiab coj raws li txoj hauj lwm nyob rau hauv lub cheeb tsam ntawm lub tib lub 20%.

Projections rau lub neej yav tom ntej

Kwvyees txog rau nriaj ntawm cov ntawv luam lo lus nrog cov sib txawv, nyob ntawm seb tsuas yog nyob rau hauv lub subjective views ntawm cov kws txawj. Yog li ntawd, Mike Shatskin, lub taub hau ntawm lub koom haum nyob rau hauv them nyiaj ntawm cov teeb meem ntawm cov kis ntawm hluav taws xob cov ntaub ntawv, neeg pab leg ntaubntawv hais tias nyob rau hauv lub tom ntej no 10-20 xyoo stats yuav hloov los ntawm "raws nraim cov lus rov", vim hais tias twb muaj ntau cov txawj nyeem ntawv ntawv Phau Ntawv - nag hmo. Tab sis nyob rau hauv lub tswv yim ntawm Marianne hma, xibfwb thiab cov thawj coj ntawm lub Language Center ntawm lub tsev kawm ntawv ntawm Massachusetts, cov phau ntawv yuav nyob twj ywm yam tsawg kawg yog ib ob peb centuries. Cov nqe lus nyob rau ob sab zoo li yuav zoo-nrhiav tau, tab sis nws yog ib yam nkaus thiab thaum ntxov mus rau kos kev xaus lus.

Lub keeb kwm ntawm hluav taws xob lo lus

Zoo-paub Project Gutenberg pib luam tawm phau ntawv sau ntawv nyob rau hauv tshuab hluav taws xob hom nyob rau hauv lub 70-ies. Nyob rau hauv tom ntej xyoo lawm, cov phau ntawv pib yuav tsum tau sau tseg rau hauv giperkarte, thawj handheld computers uas muaj peev xwm mus ua si hluav taws xob phau ntawv. Kua zaub xws li cov Xibtes tsav, Microsoft nyeem ntawv thiab Sony nyeem ntawv, leem txoj kev rau niaj hnub no lub ntsiav tshuaj thiab pab kiag li lawm rau kev nyeem ntawv hluav taws xob phau ntawv.

Nyob rau hauv 2007 lub tuam txhab "Amazon" tau tso tawm ib tug series ntawm zes - pab kiag li lawm raws li nyob rau hauv hluav taws xob daim ntawv, uas tsis muaj kev tsim txom rau saib nyeem e-phau ntawv. Qhov no lub sij hawm ntawd yog ib tug raws point nyob rau hauv lub keeb kwm ntawm lub digital lo lus. Txij li thaum 2007, lub chaw ntawm hluav taws xob tawm tswv yim hauv ntaub ntawv muaj ntau zog ho, tsis yog tsawg kawg vim lub fact tias cov hluav taws xob versions ntawm cov phau ntawv raug muag ho cheaper luam.

Cov paj huam nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej

Kwvyees txog yav tom ntej txoj kev loj hlob ntawm cov ntaub ntawv sib txawv tiam sis muaj ntau saib lub imminent tsos ntawm kev sib tham sib cov phau ntawv. Piv txwv li, Robert Stein, founder ntawm lub koom haum rau lub neej yav tom ntej ntawm phau ntawv no qhia tias qhov kev ua si kev lag luam tej zaum yuav xav nyob rau hauv daim ntawv ntawm hluav taws xob cov phau ntawv thiab zus tau tej cov pab kiag li lawm rau kev nyeem ntawv rau lawv. Raws li nws, qhov no yuav pab los lwv rau ib thaj tsam ntawm kev nyeem ntawv, sau thiab critic. Sib tham sib cov phau ntawv tig nyeem ntawv mus ua ib tug social txheej txheem, qhov twg lub tswv yim ntawm ib tug neeg nyob rau hauv lub nyeem yuav qhia ncaj qha nyob rau hauv lub margins thiab hnov thoob ntiaj teb cov neeg tuaj saib.

Stein hais tias cov tiam tom ntej ntawm tib neeg yuav tsum paub nyeem ntawv raws li ib tug neeg txheej txheem. Qhov no lub tswv yim tau ua obsolete nyob rau hauv lub tom ntej no 20 xyoo. Shatskin pom zoo nrog qhov twv ua ntej ntawm lub neej yav tom ntej ntawm pervasive cov phau ntawv, tab sis, raws li nws, tag nrho cov archaism ntawm cov ntawv luam lo lus yuav tsis tshwm sim li ntawd, sai sai. Nyob rau hauv cov phau ntawv muaj tsawg kawg yog ib nrab ib xyoo pua. Ces cov neeg yuav paub lub meaninglessness ntawm nyiaj txiag thiab tej nqi ntawm zus tau tej cov hnyav thiab ua tau txawv txawv daim ntawv phau ntawv, qhov no to taub zoo yuav khaws cia los ntawm lub dag zog ntawm manufacturers ntawm hluav taws xob los mus hais tau rau peb hais tias kev nyeem ntawv los ntawm ib tug kev tshuaj ntsuam yog ntau npaum li cas yooj yim.